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CMRA Commentary

CMRA Articles and Commentary

Posts tagged Emily Liu
When Oil Volatility Spikes, Litigation Follows
When Oil Volatility Spikes, Litigation Follows

Volatility in the markets tends to lead to disputes and litigation. Crude oil just experienced one of the most violent price swings in history. The CBOE Oil Volatility Index hit near its second highest level since 2010, surpassed only by COVID. The implications span oil, gas and fertilizer markets and all the customers of those markets.

In our experience advising clients through multiple volatility disputes in the equity, fixed income, sugar, copper and energy markets, extreme price dislocations like this don’t just move markets. They move disputes and litigation typically 6 to 18 months later.

In the piece linked below, we outline the current situation, the likely avenues for disputes and steps clients can take now to prepare themselves.

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Naomi NiePeter Niculescu, Leslie Rahl, Emily Liu
Beware the Snap-down

The inverted yield curve upended several banks. What will the inevitable snap-down do?

The US Treasury yield curve has now been more inverted for longer than at any time since at least the early 1980s, or when measured proportionately, for even longer. The US is now one of 36 countries with inverted yield curves, as central banks globally fight inflation. It is often said that inverted yield curves predict recession, but in fact they predict (with confidence) falling rates. Sometimes, falling rates are associated with recession, but that need not always be the case.

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Naomi NiePeter Niculescu, Emily Liu, Inverted yield curve
Using the VIX to Distinguish between Transitory and Persistent Risk

The volatility of the VIX Index has at times caused the impression that it is less than reliable as an indicator of risk. VIX futures and the volatility surface provide clearer information about the market perception of risk and should be used in conjunction with the VIX Index. The different movements of the VIX Index, VIX futures and of the volatility surface historically fall into four major categories that can be useful in understanding the level and length of equity market risk perceived in the options market.

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Naomi NiePeter Niculescu, Leslie Rahl, Emily Liu, vix, volatility, crisis
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